22nd Jul 2024 Gemini 1.5 Pro
While artificial intelligence (AI) is often touted as a potential savior for the environment, Daniel Schmachtenberger argues that this narrative is largely driven by marketing and a desire for hope in the face of climate change. He acknowledges the theoretical benefits of AI, such as:
However, Schmachtenberger emphasizes that many of these benefits remain theoretical, particularly those requiring significant breakthroughs. He argues that while AI has led to marginal improvements in existing technologies, it hasn't yet demonstrated the capacity to achieve the fundamental shifts needed to address climate change effectively.
"The types of AIs we have so far, as far as material innovation, tech innovation, speed up stuff that humans are already doing pretty well with, but they're not doing the types of things we're really interested in that humans aren't making much progress with."
Schmachtenberger highlights the influence of powerful AI companies in shaping public perception. He draws parallels to the military-industrial complex, suggesting that the environmental benefits of AI are often overstated to secure funding and public support.
Schmachtenberger argues that the environmental costs of AI itself are frequently overlooked. He outlines three concentric circles of impact:
Direct Energy and Material Consumption: Data centers powering AI systems consume enormous amounts of energy and require vast resources for cooling, construction, and maintenance.
"Data centers collectively, right, the global data centers use more energy than every country in the world uses energy except for the top 16."
Accelerated Resource Extraction: AI's application in industries like mining and oil extraction enables more efficient resource exploitation, making previously unprofitable reserves economically viable. This leads to increased environmental degradation and accelerates resource depletion.
"The conservative estimate is 50 trillion in mineable assets that... climate change makes way easier to get to, like awesome melting ice caps. And two, AI and robotics and whatever makes a lot easier to get to."
Economic Growth and the Jevons Paradox: AI's potential to boost economic productivity exacerbates the Jevons Paradox, where efficiency gains lead to increased overall consumption. This occurs because increased profits and economic activity drive greater energy and material demands, negating any environmental benefits from efficiency improvements.
"If we make renewable energy, it's like, great, there's more energy. We need energy for everything. Energy corresponds so very closely to dollars. We want more dollars. That doesn't mean we stop using the coal energy and the natural gas and the oil and everything else. It just means more energy. We use all of it."
Schmachtenberger argues that the current trajectory of AI development is fundamentally at odds with environmental sustainability. He posits that:
AI serves the market: AI technologies are primarily developed and deployed by corporations driven by profit maximization. These companies operate within a system that externalizes environmental costs and prioritizes growth above all else.
AI could replace the market: While currently subservient to market dynamics, AI has the potential to replace the market altogether. However, without a fundamental shift in human values and governance structures, this could lead to even more efficient resource exploitation and environmental devastation.
The arms race mentality prevails: The competitive drive to achieve AI dominance, particularly in the context of geopolitical rivalry, further fuels the unsustainable pursuit of growth and technological advancement.
"In the same way about only the winner can be generous in a really consequential way, the person or the group that has the potential to become the winner at an arms race is the one who can bind it."
Schmachtenberger contends that technological solutions alone are insufficient to address the environmental challenges posed by AI. He calls for a fundamental shift in:
Governance and Regulation: The precautionary principle should be applied to AI development, requiring proof of safety before widespread deployment. This necessitates robust regulatory frameworks that prioritize long-term ecological well-being over short-term economic gains.
Cultural Values: A shift away from the pursuit of endless growth and towards a more sustainable and equitable society is crucial. This requires re-evaluating societal priorities and embracing a worldview that recognizes the interconnectedness of human and ecological systems.
"When it comes to AI risk, it's not just the environment, it's lots of things... understand the space better to then be able to look at with your skills, your network, your resources, what you can do."
Schmachtenberger urges listeners to engage in informed dialogue and action regarding AI's environmental implications. He stresses the need for:
Increased Awareness: Educating oneself and others about the potential risks and unintended consequences of AI development, particularly within the environmental movement.
Strategic Advocacy: Leveraging one's skills, resources, and networks to advocate for responsible AI development, robust regulation, and a shift towards a more sustainable future.
Collaborative Problem-Solving: Fostering interdisciplinary collaboration between AI experts, environmental scientists, policymakers, and the public to develop solutions that mitigate the risks and harness the potential benefits of AI for a livable planet.
Schmachtenberger concludes with a message of cautious hope, emphasizing that while the challenges are immense, human agency and collective action are essential to steering AI development towards a path that safeguards both humanity and the natural world.